- Nigeria-India and Kenya-Pakistan trade routes to drive growth
- Post-pandemic trade has more localized, shorter supply chains
According to media reports and Bloomberg article published on October 13, 2022, Africa’s annual exports are expected to double to $540 billion by 2030 from a decade earlier, chiefly on shipments from Nigeria to the Asian nations of India, Indonesia and mainland China, and links between Kenya and Pakistan, according to Standard Chartered Bank Plc.
“There’s a number of macro-economic dynamics that are creating a lot of demand -- new marketplaces, newer more progressive organizations,” said Ricky Kaura, the bank’s regional head of transaction banking in Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
India will be the largest and fastest-growing importer for Nigerian shipments, which are seen reaching $112 billion by 2030 from $44 billion in 2020. Indonesia and mainland China will also remain key markets for Africa’s biggest economy, accounting for 12% and 10% of exports respectively by 2030, Kaura said.
Kenyan exports to Pakistan -- which have been predominantly tea -- are expected to climb 11% annually to $1 billion by 2030. In the decade through 2030, shipments from East Africa’s largest economy are projected at $10.2 billion from $4.9 billion, lifted by shipments to Uganda and the US, which will account for about 11% and 9% respectively.
Many companies are localizing and shortening supply chains after getting caught out by the pandemic, Kaura said. They are setting up new production facilities in Africa to be closer to markets and to enjoy the benefits of trade bloc agreements, he said.
In response, Standard Chartered is providing more digital settlement solutions as clients seek more convenient payment options.
“One of the things that the pandemic created was an urgency with our clients to have a larger acceptance of digital,” Kaura said.
