Asia’s crude oil imports are expected to rebound in November as buyers replenish their stocks ahead of winter and despite a coordinated release of strategic reserves by some of the region’s top importers. An industry survey showed that Asia’s oil imports are set to reach 26.35 million bpd this month, up strongly from 22.55 million bpd in October.
China’s crude imports are expected to increase from a 39-month low of 8.9 million bpd in October to 10.47 million bpd this month. Higher arrivals in China reflect renewed appetite from independent refiners after the government granted them new import quotas. Analysts expect that these private refiners would boost the purchase of Russia’s ESPO crude despite rising spot prices. In addition, China’s non-committal stance toward the US-led SPR release creates uncertainty over its future import requirements.
India’s commitment to releasing 5 million barrels of SPR crude would unlikely make enough difference in its imports, analysts said. The country’s crude imports are estimated to increase from 4.04 million bpd in October to 4.41 million bpd in November, the highest since April. Fuel consumption has been healthy in India thanks to rising motoring activity during the festival months.
Japan’s crude imports are on track to increase from 2.54 million bpd in October to 3.04 million bpd this month, the highest since March 2020. South Korea’s November imports are estimated at a 22-month high of 2.95 million bpd, up from 2.70 million bpd in the prior month.
