According to Reuters article published on March 6, 2023, the oil market has stabilised because the worst fears about shortages of crude, gas and fuel in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine did not come to pass, Gunvor Chief Executive Torbjorn Tornqvist said on Monday.
Swiss-based Gunvor is one of the world's top oil traders, moving around 3.2 million barrels per day of oil.
"Last year, there was an enormous amount of disruptions, a global energy crisis: coal, gas, oil looked very very tight," Tornqvist told an audience at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
"The worst fears about winter, gas or diesel shortage, didn't come true."
The mild winter in Europe was "a bit of a lucky break", he said.
Crude prices may rise in the second half of the year as Chinese demand returns to the market, Tornqvist said.
Price caps on Russian crude and fuel sales imposed by the G7 and allies had been effective in both keeping Russian supplies flowing and reducing the price buyers are paying Russia, he said.
"I must say I was pretty skeptical when I heard about how that will work, but I must conclude this has been working as intended, meaning Russian oil is flowing, but at a lower price. And that is exactly what is happening," he said.
There may even be more Russian fuel on the market now than before the war, he told reporters later.
The main beneficiaries of the price cap were the buyers of Russian crude and fuel and also shipowners, he told the conference. Oil tankers are having to travel much larger distances to transport Russian oil to buyers such as China and India that have not imposed sanctions.
A large number of vessels were participating in what he called a grey or ghost fleet to transport Russian crude. That fleet numbered 300-400 vessels, he said.
For global gas markets, high prices had led to demand destruction and some of that will never come back, he said.
Increased gas exploration and expansion of production in Qatar and elsewhere in the next three to four years should ensure liquefied natural gas supply is in balance with demand and keep prices down.
