On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that in 2020 and 2021, US natural gas production and demand would fall from the record high in 2019.
This year, dry gas production to slump to 89.84 bcfd, the first annual fall since 2016 and in 2021 it would fall further to 84.89 bcfd. The predictions are comparable with 2019’s 92.2 bcfd, while at the same time be the first falls for two consecutive years since 2005.
Gas consumption is forecast to down to 81.69 bcfd, while for 2021 deepened to 79.17 bcfd. Last year, it was a record high of 84.97 bcfd.
Just last month, the EIA estimated 91.7 bcfd of gas output and 83.79 bcfd for consumption.
According to the EIA, gas’ share of power generation to likely increase to 39% this year, from last year’s 37%. However, next year, as gas prices increase, it will ease to 36%.
Coal’s share in power generation to possibly sank to 19% in 2020 from 24% last year but will rise to 21% next year. Coal would be topped by both nuclear and renewables for the first time this year as likely, nuclear share to climb to 21% in 2020 and 2021 from 20% last year. Likewise, renewables are seen to reach 20% this year and 22% next from 17% in 2019.
The EIA expected the country’s coal production to dive into the lowest level since 1964 this year to 523 million short tons, compared to 690 million short tons last year. In 2021, the production would likely rise to 550 million short tons.
Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are estimated to drop to the lowest level since 1983 this year to 4.559 billion tonnes from 5.130 billion tonnes in 2019. Next year, the level is likely to rise to 4.77 billion tonnes.
