On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted drops for the country’s gas outputs in 2020 and 2021 due to the coronavirus lockdowns which affected economic activity and energy prices.
On its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA predicted that this year, dry gas output in the US would slump to 88.65 bcfd from 2019’s all-time high of 92.21 bcfd. In 2021, production would fall even more to 84.02 bcfd.
The consumption of gas this year would go down from the record-high of 84.97 bcfd in 2019 to 82.42 bcfd in 2020 and 78.71 bcfd in 2021. If realized, the reading would be the first annual decrease since 2017 and the first yearly fall for two years in a row since 2006.
Gas supply in August is predicted to be lower than July’s 89.24 bcfd, but its newest demand outlook for this year was higher than its July forecast of 82.35 bcfd.
Exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) would likely go up to 5.54 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021 from 4.98 bcfd in 2019. The new forecast was higher than the previous one in July of 5.35 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021.
The US would produce lesser coal by 29% from 2019 at 502 mt, the lowest level since 1963. However, as power plants are expected to burn more coal due to an estimated increase in gas prices, the level would rise to 564 mt next year.
Carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to slump to the lowest level since 1983 at 4.543 billion tonnes this year, compared to 2019’s lowest since 1992 of 5.130 billion tonnes. Next year, as coal consumption increases, it would rise to 4.798 billion tonnes.
