The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) expects slower growth in power generation by natural gas-fired plants in the US in 2020. According to EIA, generation from natural gas-fired power plants will grow by 1.3% this year, the weakest growth since 2017.
In the last ten years, The US electric power sector has been adding more natural gas generating capacity to replace retired coal-fired plants. EIA said the US had retired 12.7 GW of coal-fired capacity at the beginning of the year. An additional 5.8 GW is expected to be retired in 2020. Hence, generation from coal-fired power plants is forecast to decrease by 13% this year.
On the other hand, power generation from non-hydropower renewables such as wind and solar is forecast to expand by 15% this year, the sharpest increase in four years. EIA estimates that 19.3 GW of additional solar capacity will be online this year, a 65% increase from a year ago. Wind capacity is expected to expand by nearly 30 GW, a 32% growth from last year.
According to EIA, these trends in the US electric power sector will continue next year. Power generation from non-hydropower renewables in the US is likely to expand by 17% in 2021. This increase and rising natural gas prices are expected to weigh on the natural gas-fired generation, which is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2021.
