The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its International Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO2019) projects that global CO2 emissions from energy-related sources will increase by 0.6% annually from 2018 to 2050.
Non-OECD members collectively have bigger GDP, house more people, consume higher energy, and emit more energy-related CO2 compared to those of OECD members. The GDP, population, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions from non-OECD countries are also projected to grow faster than for OECD countries.
Demand for energy services such as air electronics, conditioning, and personal vehicles in non-OECD members will continue to grow. Those countries also house energy-intensive industrial processes which are expected to expand by 1.6% annually from 2018 to 2050, while energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 1.0% annually.
China will be the top emitter of energy-related CO2 until 2050, according to the outlook. Coal will be the primary source of emissions in the country, albeit at a slower growth rate as it will be gradually replaced with natural gas. Meanwhile, India is projected to register the fastest growth of coal-related CO2 emissions by 2.8%/year.
On the other hand, energy services demand in the OECD economies is relatively saturated. The economy and population grow relatively slower compared to those of non-OECD economies. In OECD countries, more advanced technology also helps to reduce energy consumption by building and vehicles.
The manufacturing and commercial services in OECD countries are expected to become less energy-intensive. Energy-related CO2 emissions from these countries are projected to decrease by 0.2% annually from 2018 through 2050. The United States is the largest CO2 emitter from natural gas, and its Petroleum liquids-related CO2 emissions are projected to match those of China through 2050.
However, on per capita basis, OECD countries emit about 9.5 metric tons of energy-related CO2 compared to 3.6 metric tons in non-OECD countries as of 2018. By 2050, the emissions in OECD countries are expected to lower to 8.2 metric tons per capita, while non-OECD countries will increase to 3.6 metric tons per person.
