The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest short-term energy outlook (STEO), expects the economic slowdown and lockdowns will likely impact US electricity demand in the upcoming months. Electricity retail sales to the US commercial sector are forecast to decrease by 4.7% this year due to the shutdown of many businesses.
In the industrial sector, electricity sales will likely decline by 4.2% in 2020 amid lower manufacturing activity, EIA said. Meanwhile, sales of electricity in the residential sector are estimated to decline by 0.8% in 2020, dragged by lower power usage due to milder winter and summer weather, although household electricity demand increases as many residents stay at home.
As a result, the US electric generation is projected to fall by 3% this year. EIA projects that renewables will lead the growth in new electric power capacity with 12.6 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity and 19.4 gigawatts of new wind capacity this year. These estimated annual solar and wind capacity expansions are reduced by 10% and 5%, respectively from EIA’s March STEO.
The US energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 2.7% in 2019 and are expected to decline further by 7.5% in 2020 driven by slowing economic activity as well as business and travel restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 3.6% as the economy recovers.
