Fitch Solutions said in a report released on Thursday that coal and natural gas prices had dropped significantly in the past month owing to improved supplies. Fitch said the decline signalled that the energy crisis is easing as supply constraints are already fading. The rating agency noted coal prices had subdued due to improved supply and market intervention by the Chinese government. Fitch added that Beijing’s crackdown had forced traders who had speculatively stockpiled coal to release volumes back into the market.
As a result, global coal prices have fallen steeply. Export coal prices in South Africa and Australia plunged 60%-70% over the past few weeks. Meanwhile, oil prices have been steady above $80 per barrel, supported by some spillover from the broader energy crisis and strong fundamentals. Brent prices are expected to stay elevated at around $85 per barrel heading into 2022. However, Fitch expects coal, oil, and gas prices to be 15%-40% lower in 2022 compared to their current spot price levels.
