The decarbonisation efforts in the global energy system have progressed over the last decade. However, hitting the net-zero emission target by 2050 remains far out of reach for many countries. Global energy demand has become less carbon-intensive in recent years, but it cannot catch up with the rapid rise of energy use, rising populations and incomes in developing countries.
Global energy use increased at a compound annual rate of 1.9% in 2009-2019, while energy-related CO2 emissions rose at an average rate of 1.4%. A shift from coal to gas, wind, and solar, as well as improved combustion efficiency, have reduced emissions per unit of energy use in most countries. However, the absolute amount of energy-related emissions continue to increase due to the growth of energy demand.
In OECD countries, energy use rose only slightly (+0.4% per year) while emissions decreased (-0.4% per year). Denmark managed to reduce emissions by 4.0%, followed by the UK (-2.8%), Italy (-1.8%), France (-1.7%), Spain (-1.3%), Germany (-1.0%) and the US (-0.6%).
On the other hand, both energy demand (+3.1% per year) and emissions rose (+2.5% per year) in non-OECD countries. Vietnam posted the sharpest emission increase of 10.8%, followed by Bangladesh (8.0%), the Philippines (6.5%), Indonesia (5.0%), India (4.5%), China (2.5%), and Brazil (2.3%).
According to BP’s report, OECD countries’ energy demand peaked in 2007. In contrast, energy demand peaks in non-OECD countries have yet to be seen. Worldwide CO2 emissions hit a record 34.2 billion tons in 2019, compared to 29.7 billion tons a decade earlier. The global CO2 emissions are expected to fall in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic but projected to rebound this year in line with the economic recovery.
