The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its annual World Energy Outlook 2019, raised its estimate of US tight oil resources by 35% to 155 billion barrels, compared to 24 billion barrels in its 2011 estimates. IEA also forecasts US shale oil production to increase from 11 million bpd in 2019 to 16 million bpd in 2030.
The forecast for increasing US tight oil production was based on IEA’s central scenario, where global oil production rising by almost 10% through 2040. Last year, IEA predicted that US shale oil output would decline after 2025. In this year’s outlook, IEA said US shale oil production would peak until the 2030s.
The US will lead the oil production increase among non-OPEC producers. Increasing output in the US, Brazil, and Norway will lower OPEC’s share of global oil production from 55% in the mid-2000s to 36% by 2025, its lowest since 1990. This assumes that OPEC continues its practice of reducing oil output.
Despite the significant growth in oil production in the US, Brazil, and Norway, the world will still rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude. IEA said that Asian countries would account for 80% of global oil imports, and they will still receive the majority of them from Middle Eastern producers.
Iraq’s oil production growth will trail just behind the US. The oil output from the country will reach 5.3 million bpd in 2025 from 4.7 million bpd in 2018. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s production is expected to grow to 13.1 million bpd from12.4 million bpd over the same period.
