A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected that the maritime shipping industry would miss the target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (NZE) by 2050, mainly on the side of carbon dioxide (CO2).
The fall short would be accounted by the lack of available low-carbon options on the market and the long lifetime of vessels which typically hit 25 to 35 years.
Around 90% of the global trade is transported by sea. In 2019, the industry’s CO2 emissions were at 880 million tonnes, then at 830 million tonnes in 2020. The EIA estimated the rate to fall by 6% annually by 2050 to 120 million tonnes.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set a goal to slash the overall greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 2008 levels by 2050.
The IEA said that in the near term, the industry could cut emissions significantly by operational efficiencies such as reduced voyage speeds and wind assistance. In the medium-term, low-carbon fuels such as biofuels, hydrogen and ammonia will play an important role.
Over the upcoming three decades, ammonia and hydrogen would be the key low-carbon fuels for shipping with a total share in shipping energy consumption reaching about 60% in 2050. 20% of the share would be taken by biofuels while electrification would only play a very minor role.
