The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2020 World Oil Outlook, said that global oil consumption would reach a peak in the late 2030s and could have begun to decline by then. According to OPEC projection, global oil demand would increase from 90.7 million bpd this year to 107.2 million bpd in 2030. The latest 2030 forecast is 1.1 million bpd lower than its forecast in 2019, and more than 10 million bpd below its prediction in 2007.
The lower projections highlight the lingering long-term effect of the coronavirus pandemic, OPEC said. While oil consumption from cars, trucks, and industry is expected to rebound as economies recover, commuting activity is estimated to be reduced on shift to home-working and teleconferencing. The transportation sector will also experience improved fuel efficiency and wider adoption of electric mobility.
According to OPEC, oil consumption will jump to 97.7 million bpd in 2021 and continue to grow to 99.8 million bpd and 102.6 million bpd by 2022 and 2024, respectively. The 2024 projection is lower than OPEC’s last year forecast. OPEC also said that its combined production would rise to 30.7 million bpd in 2021, higher than last year’s output. However, rising production from non-OPEC, particularly the US, will put OPEC’s output in 2025 at around 33.2 million bpd, below last year’s production.
Despite scaling down forecasts, OPEC still expects growth for the next couple of years. This contrasts oil majors Total, BP, and Shell, which project oil demand growth to end at around 2030. OPEC has been concerned that the coronavirus pandemic would cause a permanent impact on demand. Some analysts also said that the health crisis had accelerated transition toward low-carbon energy.
