- S&P lowers rating to CCC+ after floods, inflation shocks
- Country is already scored CCC+ equivalent by Moody’s, Fitch
According to Bloomberg article published on December 22, 2022, Pakistan was downgraded by S&P Global Ratings as a series of shocks — from flooding to surging inflation — cause the nation’s external, fiscal and economic metrics to further deteriorate.
The nation’s credit score was cut by a notch to CCC+ from B- by S&P, which expects Pakistan’s dwindling foreign reserves to remain under pressure in the coming year, just as political risks lingers, according to a Thursday statement.
“Pakistan’s already low foreign exchange reserves will remain under pressure throughout 2023, barring a material decline in oil prices or a step-up in foreign assistance,” S&P analysts Andrew Wood and YeeFarn Phua wrote.
Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service already rank the nation’s $7.8 billion in foreign bonds at seven notches below investment grade, the equivalent of S&P’s CCC+ rating, on par with El Salvador and Ukraine. S&P also raised the outlook for Pakistan to stable from negative on Thursday.
The country is facing an economic crisis with only enough reserves to cover one month of imports, a dollar shortage and a delay in its loan program with the International Monetary Fund. Investors are still concerned about the nation’s ability to keep up on its foreign debt obligations, with long-term dollar bonds continuing to trade at distressed levels despite the payment of a $1 billion bond this month.
Pakistan’s unprecedented floods in the summer killed more than 1,700 people, inundated third of the nation and cut the nation’s growth by half. The floods have left about $32 billion in damages and losses to the nation’s economy.
Meantime, the current administration is set to end by August of next year or earlier, meaning it has limited time to implement economic reforms.
“We expect political uncertainty to remain elevated over the coming quarters, with continued pressure from the opposition to hold early elections,” the S&P analysts wrote.
