On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated that in the fourth quarter of 2020, global refining throughput to rise even when it would not be sufficient to balance oil products markets.
The IEA expected the climb in the last quarter could be roughly 2.1 million bpd to 75.8 million bpd. However, the runs would still way below the required level to balance the product markets by almost 3 million bpd, and would lead to stock draws.
In comparison, in the third quarter, the global refinery crude throughput was at 73.7 million bpd, down by nearly 9 million bpd from the same period last year.
Refiners have been facing challenges caused by the structural shift in global oil consumption which is moving away from transport fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel towards petrochemicals feedstock. However, the crude prices crash in September had provided some kind of short-lived support to product margins.
Last week, the European gasoline margin reached the highest level in seven months as demands were strong from West Africa and the US and regional refinery shutdowns.
In October, the European diesel markets have also recovered from record lows on the back of the fall of Russian exports and regional refineries shut for maintenance. The occurrence helped to offset persistently weak demand.
Looking forward, the IEA estimated that next year, global throughput would rebound by 4.9 million bpd to 79.4 million bpd.
