The weekly spot price assessment of LNG delivered to Northeast Asia settled at $15.50 per MMBtu in the week ended August 20, down from $17.05 in the previous week. Meanwhile, New York-traded futures ended at $16.34 per MMBtu on Monday, up from $15.66 on August 20 but below the eight-month high of $17.99 on August 18. Asian LNG spot prices are typically at a seasonal low in August, but they are currently at the highest for this time of year since 2013, thanks mainly to robust demand from China.
China imported 45.84 million tons of LNG in the first seven months of 2021, up 24% from a year earlier. At this pace, China is set to overtake Japan as the largest LNG importer in the world soon. Worldwide LNG imports stood at 30.96 million tons in July compared to 28.2 million tons in July 2020. The significant increase represents a demand recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Global LNG imports are estimated to reach 31.88 million tons in August, rising from 28.1 million tons a year earlier.
Tight supply also underpinned Asian spot prices. Australia’s LNG exports are expected to fall from 6.98 million tons in July to 6.91 million tons in August due to maintenance at some plants. At least two Australian LNG plants are expected to remain idle for much of August and September. US LNG loadings are also forecast to decline from 6.07 million in July to 5.7 million tons in August due to scheduled turnarounds at some feedgas pipelines.
Russia’s LNG exports are estimated at around 1.91 million tons in August, stagnating from 1.90 million tons in July. It will be well below June’s 2.59 million tons and May’s 2.8 million tons due to planned maintenance at Sakhalin and Yamal facilities. On the other hand, Qatar’s exports are expected to hit a record 7.94 million tons this month, up from 6.43 million last month. However, additional Qatari cargoes probably would not offset the shortfall from other major exporters, tightening the market at a time of strong demand.
