- Shell plc has published its latest scenarios: the Energy Security Scenarios. The two new scenarios explore how the world could evolve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, they look into the possible energy and climate outcomes that could result from a world that has security as its dominant concern.
According to the company’s website news release on March 21, 2023, Shell Scenarios are not predictions or expectations of what will happen, or what will probably happen. They are not expressions of Shell’s strategy, and they are not Shell’s business plan; they are one of the many inputs used by Shell to stretch thinking whilst making decisions.
The first scenario, called Archipelagos, follows how today’s pressures could play out to the end of the century. National interest remains key and renewables are mainly seen as a way to improve energy security. By 2100, net-zero emissions is within sight, but the world has failed to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. This scenario is “exploratory”: it seeks to plot a course from where the world stood in 2022.
The second scenario, called Sky 2050, shows just how fast the world must move to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. Global climate security becomes the primary concern. Nations race to switch to cleaner energy and a competitive landscape emerges for technology, minerals and manufacturing capacity. Competition drives rapid change and the world reaches net-zero emissions in 2050. This scenario is “normative” and extremely challenging: it set goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 and warming restricted to below 1.5°C by 2100, and then worked back to the realities of 2022 to explore how these end points could be reached.
Key points from the Energy Security Scenarios include:
- Fossil fuels lose market share. The energy system is decarbonising, the questions is: how fast?
- There is no realistic path to an instant and steep drop in emissions.
- The average temperature rise is highly likely to breach 1.5°C.
- The future of energy is electricity, although hydrogen and bioenergy have significant roles to play.
- Bringing the temperature rise back down below 1.5°C will require large-scale carbon removal and storage.
Scenarios are informed by data, constructed using models and contain insights from leading experts in the relevant fields. Ultimately, for all readers, scenarios are intended as an aid to making better decisions. They stretch minds, broaden horizons and explore assumptions.
Explore the Energy Security Scenarios, including a summary, at www.shell.com/scenarios to find out more.
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Notes to editors
The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur.
Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future.
Cautionary note
The Energy Security Scenarios
WARNING - UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD: Shell’s scenarios are not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell’s scenarios, including the scenarios contained in this publication, are not Shell’s strategy or business plan. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities. When developing Shell’s strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goal to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control, only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal. The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur. Our assumptions for the Sky 2050 are based on what we believe are technically possible as of today and not necessarily plausible. Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future. Of course, there is a range of possible paths in detail that society could take to achieve this goal. Although achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement and the future depicted in Sky 2050 while maintaining a growing global economy will be extremely challenging, today there is still a technically possible pathway to accomplish it. However, we believe the window for success is quickly closing.
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