According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website article published on April 11, 2023:
Forecast overview
- Global liquid fuels production. On April 3, OPEC and partner countries announced they would cut crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) through the end of 2023. Our March STEO accounted for some declines in OPEC production in the coming months. However, as a result of the announcement, we reduced our forecast of OPEC production by 0.5 million b/d for the rest of 2023. Overall, we expect less global liquid fuels production this year than in last month’s STEO. However, less production from OPEC was partly offset by a 0.3 million b/d increase in our forecast for Russia’s liquid fuels production over the rest of this year.
- Crude oil prices. The Brent crude oil spot price in our forecast averages $85 per barrel (b) in 2023, up $2/b from last month’s forecast. The higher price forecast reflects a forecast for less global production in 2023 and a relatively unchanged outlook for global oil consumption. Despite our higher price forecast, recent issues in the banking sector raise the potential that economic and oil demand growth will be lower than our forecast, which has the potential to result in lower oil prices.
- U.S. gasoline prices. We forecast retail gasoline prices will peak between $3.50 per gallon (gal) and $3.60/gal in June and average about $3.50/gal throughout the summer season (April through September). This month we will release our inaugural Perspectives supplement, which discusses alternative scenarios for summer gasoline prices and how they affect our estimates of consumer spending.
- Natural gas storage. Mild winter weather in the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23) resulted in natural gas inventories ending the withdrawal season (November–March) 19% higher than the five-year (2018–2022) average. We forecast natural gas inventories will end the injection season (April–October) at 3.8 trillion cubic feet, 6% above the five-year average.
- Natural gas prices. We forecast that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average about $2.65 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2Q23 as natural gas inventories begin to rise. With inventories remaining above the five-year average in 2023, we expect natural gas prices to average less than $3.00/MMBtu for 2023, a more than 50% decrease from last year.
- Electricity. U.S. electricity demand in 2Q23 in our forecast is down about 1% from the same period last year. The drop in demand largely reflects our expectation for milder temperatures than last year. Less demand, along with growing generation from renewable energy sources and lower natural gas prices significantly lower electric power prices in our forecast for 2Q23 and 3Q23 compared with the same periods in 2022.
