The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020), projected US natural gas production and exports to continue rising through 2050. According to the Reference Case of the outlook, which assumes no significant changes in energy policy, US natural gas output is expected to reach 45 Tcf by 2050 from 34 Tcf in 2019.
Increasing output from shale resources in the East, Gulf Coast, and Southwest regions will drive US natural gas production growth over the projection period, EIA said. These regions contributed to 68% of overall US dry natural gas production last year. In 2050, about 78% of US dry natural gas will come from these regions, EIA added.
Under the Reference Case, US total natural gas exports, which include LNG and pipeline gas, are projected to keep increasing through 2030. EIA predicted US LNG exports to increase to 5.8 Tcf in 2030 from 1.7 Tcf last year.
Under the side cases, namely the Low Oil Price case and Low Oil and Gas Supply case, US LNG become less competitive and annual exports are forecast to stay below 5 Tcf through 2050. In contrast, under the High Oil Price case, exports are projected to expand to 13 Tcf by the late 2030s. Meanwhile, natural gas exports via pipeline are less sensitive to the fluctuation in the oil and gas prices, EIA noted.
