Energy crisis unfolding – what will it mean for the long term?
Energy Perspectives 2022: Long-term development in the world’s energy markets and how politics, technologies, companies, and consumers can influence it, is an overarching theme of the energy transition.
According to the company’s website news release on September 17, 2022, to bring the world on track to address long-term sustainability challenges in a balanced manner, trust, cooperation, and burden-sharing must be established. This will take time and is by no means guaranteed, especially when geopolitical conflicts rise on the political agenda.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year has not only tragically impacted the lives and livelihoods of those directly affected, but the associated geopolitical tensions have also further deteriorated global cooperation, trade and supply flows on which a sustainable energy transition is completely dependent,” says Eirik Wærness, chief economist in Equinor.
Security of supply has come to the forefront of the energy policy agenda, with rising prices and significant increases in overall cost of living, keeping energy affordability firmly on the agenda. The climate challenge will remain as a long-term driver for decarbonisation of our energy system. Nevertheless, short- to medium-term focus should also be expected on those options addressing increased energy security and affordability.
“In these testing times, we must stay focused on the longer-term transformative measures and structural changes needed for a sustainable energy future. Reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement is an immense challenge and will require continuous engagement, collaboration and commitment from governments, industries, investors, and consumers alike,” says Anders Opedal, President and CEO of Equinor.
Energy Perspectives is an independent report prepared by Equinor analysts. This year, the report presents two distinct scenarios for the world economy, international energy markets and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios are not predictions but possible contrasting pathways, providing a platform for debate and decision making.
The two scenarios, Walls and Bridges, illustrate very different future pathways. They aim to highlight the immense challenges that must be overcome to make the move from the slow, incremental changes that characterise the energy transition today (Walls), to the radical changes needed to move the world onto a path aligned with the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris agreement (Bridges).
“Walls divide and bridges connect. Our new scenarios paint a large outcome space for what the long-term energy future might look like based on choices made today and going forward,” says Wærness.
What is Energy Perspectives?
Energy Perspectives is an independent report prepared by Equinor analysts in macroeconomics, energy markets and geopolitics.
The report describes development paths up to 2050 for the world economy, energy markets and energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, and includes a 1.5 degrees scenario.
The scenarios are not detailed predictions but possible contrasting pathways, providing a platform for debate and decision making.
‘’Key to the speed of the energy transition will be how fast the world is able to decarbonise the electricity sector, electrify road transport, and realise permanent energy efficiency gains’’- Eirik Wærness, Chief Economist in Equinor.
Energy Perspectives 2022:
Balancing energy security, affordability and decarbonisation is key for a sustainable energy transition.
Amid turmoil in global energy markets, this year’s Energy Perspective report presents two scenarios; Walls and Bridges, which illustrate two very different pathways for the global energy system towards 2050.
About the scenarios
The scenarios highlight the challenges that must be overcome to move from the slow, incremental changes that characterise the energy transition today (Walls), to the radical changes needed to move the world onto a path aligned with the 1.5°C ambition of the Paris agreement (Bridges).
Security of energy supply has come to the forefront of the energy policy agenda, with rising energy prices and significant increases in overall cost of living, keeping energy affordability on the agenda as well. Still, the climate challenge will stay as a long-term driver for decarbonisation of our energy system, but the short to medium-term focus should be expected mainly on those options that combine decarbonisation with increased energy security and resilience.
How will the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand towards 2050 develop? How fast will the world be able to electrify road transport? And, to what extent will natural gas play a role as a transition fuel? These are big questions with potentially large impact on the energy markets and the ability to deliver on climate targets; thus, the dialogue driven by Energy Perspectives is particularly valuable in informing decisions that will shape the future of energy.
Equinor in brief
Equinor is an international energy company committed to long-term value creation in a low-carbon future. Our purpose is to turn natural resources into energy for people and progress for society. Equinor’s portfolio of projects encompasses oil and gas, renewables and low-carbon solutions, with an ambition of becoming a net-zero energy company by 2050. Headquartered in Stavanger (Norway), Equinor is the leading operator on the Norwegian continental shelf. We are present in around 30 countries worldwide.
Where we are
Equinor is present in around 30 countries around the world. We operate in North and South America, Africa, Asia, Oceania, Europe - and Norway.
