The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its World Energy Outlook 2040, expects global oil consumption growth to slow from 2025 due to the increased use of electric vehicles. The IEA predicts there will be a significant slowdown in the 2030s.
According to the agency, worldwide demand for oil would rise by around 1 million bpd on average annually through 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018. Demand is then expected to grow by 0.1 million bpd on average annually during the 2030s to 106 million bpd in 2040.
The forecast was based on current energy policies and announced targets, as well as the anticipated move towards electric vehicles. However, oil consumption is unlikely to peak in the next two decades, the IEA said, citing increased demand from petrochemical, shipping, trucking, and aviation industries.
The IEA expects the US, Brazil, and Iraq to lead the growth in global oil production. US tight oil production will grow from 6 million bpd in 2018 to 11 million bpd in 2035, according to the IEA’s estimates. Meanwhile, the share of oil output from OPEC and Russia will fall to 47%, the lowest since the 1980s.
Previously OPEC in its World Oil Outlook 2040 also expects oil demand to grow at “healthy” rates through 2024, but then slow afterward with consumption growth in OECD countries turning negative.
