- Local and import prices captured on an uptrend in Q1
- Demand remained on a bearish tone
- Outlook is pessimistic
SSESSMENTS.COM’s data showed that Vietnam saw an overall hike in the local and import PVC market at the beginning of the first quarter of 2020. For January deliveries, most local producers applied a price increase of between VND200,000-400,000/ton ($8-17/ton) on local PVC prices as compared to December. The uptrend in the international market was cited as a factor triggered the producers to increase the offers. From the import market, the leading Taiwanese PVC producer initiated a price increase of $10/ton for January shipment offers as compared to December, with a discount of $10/ton was applicable for purchasing at 500 tons and above. Likewise, a Japanese PVC producer made a decision to raise their January shipment offers by $20/ton compared to the same period, considering the relatively tight PVC supply in the market as well as on the producer’s end.
In February, local and import PVC prices stayed on an upward trajectory following the uptrend in the global market. In the domestic market, February delivery offers from local producers were available at VND700,000/ton ($29/ton) higher than offers available for January delivery. From the import market, the leading Taiwanese PVC producer announced February shipment offers to the Vietnam market with an increase of $20/ton from January, a discount of $10/ton was applicable for purchasing at 500 tons and above. Similarly, SSESSMENTS.COM was informed that a Thai PVC producer opted to raise February shipment offers by $25/ton as compared to the same period.
Vietnam saw PVC prices trending higher at the end of the first quarter of 2020. In the domestic market, a local producer announced March delivery offers to the market with an increase of VND200,000/ton ($8/ton) as compared to February. From the import market, March shipment offers from the leading Taiwanese PVC producer surfaced in the market with an increase of between $10/ton from a month earlier, and a discount of $10/ton was applicable for purchasing at 500 tons and above. Meanwhile, a Thai producer adjusted up the March shipment offers to Vietnam between $20-30/ton on a monthly comparison following water supply issues, which forced the producer to cut the operating rate at its PVC plant. Likewise, a Japanese PVC producer applied an upward adjustment of $10/ton on March shipment offers compared to the same period. In the final week of March, a regional trader managed to sell the Indonesian cargoes to Vietnamese traders below $800/ton-level, at $780/ton or $40/ton lower than the initial offer level from the leading Indonesian PVC producer.
In general, demand for PVC in the Vietnam market exhibited a mixed performance during the first quarter of 2020. Throughout January, Vietnam’s PVC market showed signs of ebbing due to the Tet Holiday (Vietnamese Lunar New Year). During the month, most market participants in Vietnam were reluctant to hold a high inventory level during the long holiday and preferred to source the materials at a small quantity only. In the final week of the month, most market players were away from their desks for the Lunar New Year celebration, from January 23 to January 29. In February, the Coronavirus outbreak began to assert a significant impact on the Vietnam market. As the lethal virus in China spreads, most converters halted purchasing activity, while some preferred to keep the procurements on a hand-to-mouth basis due to the uncertainties in the market. For the end products, some converters had seen a significant increase in demand for pharmaceutical packaging, such as rigid PVC film for medicine in the midst of the COVID-19 outbreak.
In March, the overall buying sentiment remained subdued, weighed down by market players' concern over the Coronavirus outbreak and the downtrend in crude oil prices which have led to rising uncertainties and pushed the market into a crisis. However, some local producers claimed that sales to some parts of the country remained satisfactory throughout February and March. On the production front, AGC Chemicals Vietnam delayed maintenance shutdown at its PVC plant as the company was facing massive manpower shortage amid the outbreak. Previously, the plant with a capacity of 150,000 tons/year was planned to shut on March 26. On the supply side, supply levels remained sufficient for most of the quarter.
Entering the second quarter, market participants in Vietnam voiced out to SSESSMENTS.COM that the PVC prices and demand movements will highly depend on the upstream market. However, some sources remain unsure of demand and price movement due to many uncertainties in the market. While other sources predict that that demand would remain on the negative side as Coronavirus fears intensify.
