The American Chemistry Council said US chemical volumes are expected to drop nearly 10 percent this year as global economic activity contracts due to the impacts of COVID-19. Volumes should recover in 2021 with a return to pre-COVID-19 output levels in the US by the second half of 2021.
While shipments will decline by 13.5 percent, chemical volumes will fall 9.3 percent this year. ACC forecasts a decline in basic chemicals volumes of 8.9 percent in 2020 with a 14.2 percent rebound in 2021. In specialties, the 2020 decline is expected to be 13.6 percent in 2020, followed by a 10.6 percent gain in 2021.
Before rebounding by 5.3 percent in 2021, ACC expects global GDP to contract by 4.6 percent in 2020. For this year, industrial production is set to plunge 10.5 percent. In 2021, it is expected to increase by 3.1 percent. World trade will contract 15.7 percent in 2020 before improving by 14.4 percent in 2021.
US chemicals trade will fall by 16.4 percent in 2020, to $199 billion. Before rising 10.9 percent in 2021, US chemical exports will decline sharply, falling by 14.5 percent in 2020. As industry maintains its net trade surplus, $37 billion will be reached by net exports of chemicals by 2025.
