According to Reuters article published on May 11, 2023, the Russian central bank forecast on Thursday that the price of the country's flagship Urals oil blend will average $55 per barrel in 2023-2025, and the average price of Russian oil overall will be slightly higher than that due to more expensive grades.
This is below the price cap of $60 per barrel imposed by the West on Russian oil over Moscow's actions in Ukraine, while the breakeven price of Urals is assumed at $70.1 per barrel for the Russian budget this year.
The price of Russian oil plays a key role in the state coffers' revenue and is closely watched as the country's federal budget recorded a 3.4 trillion rouble ($44 billion) deficit in the first four months of this year.
"Urals oil price forecast for 2023–2025 left unchanged at $55 per barrel. At the same time, the actual export price of Russian oil will be slightly higher, taking into account higher prices for other supply bases," the central bank said in a monetary policy report released on Thursday.
It did not give a precise forecast for the average price of Russian oil.
Apart from Urals, Russia also supplies Siberian Light, ESPO, Sokol, ARCO and other oil grades for exports.
The bank also said that the spread, or difference, between Urals and dated Brent - the price of physical, light North Sea crude oil - narrowed to $25 per barrel by April from $34 in January-February.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has repeatedly said Russia's budget deficit this year would be no more than 2% of GDP, although most analysts disagree. The International Monetary Fund is among those expecting Russia to see a sharply wider budget deficit this year.
Siluanov recently said oil and gas revenues - down 52.3% year-on-year in the first four months of this year according to recent data - would be crucial in Russia meeting the 2% target.
