Under the current carbon-neutral goal, China’s total primary energy is estimated to reach a peak of 5.6 billion tons of standard coal equivalent around 2035, according to a study by CNPC’s research institute. The research also forecasts domestic oil consumption to be capped at 730 million tons by around 2025. Natural gas demand is projected to peak at 550 Bcf around 2040. Meanwhile, coal use is likely to peak in 2025 before falling sharply to 900 million tons in 2050.
Jiang Xuefeng, the vice director at CNPC’s research arm, said under the existing development model, China would be able to cap its carbon emission before 2030. However, it would face challenges to be a carbon-neutral economy before 2060. Xuefeng said the country needed to revise its economic and energy structure as soon and intensely as possible.
The research said replacing transportation fossil fuels with electricity will significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the sector. New energy vehicles are expected to make up 30% of total vehicles in the country before reaching 50% and 80% in 2040 and 2050, respectively. The study said China’s carbon emissions would plateau between 2025 and 2030 before falling to around 2.4 billion tons in 2050 and to near zero in 2030.
