On Tuesday, the Colombian government estimated that in the next ten years, the country’s output of oil and coal would fall although the impact would be eased by the improvement in prices.
According to Finance Vice Minister Juan Alberto Londono, oil production would fall by 16.9% to 654,000 bpd while that of coal to slip by 28.4% to 53 million tonnes. The country’s royalties from oil and mining will hit COP9.4 trillion (USD2.46 billion) in 2030, from this year’s projected result of COP7.07 trillion (USD1.86 billion).
There is no clarity whether the oil output forecast included potential production using non-conventional methods like fracking, which use depends on pending approval by the country’s top administrative tribunal.
The country is taking measures to increase its 2 million barrels of oil reserves which would translate into 6.3 years of consumption by improving recovery levels in the existing fields and expanding exploration.
Crude prices were seen to rise over the next ten years to USD74/barrel, from an average of USD37 in 2020.
Regarding coal, Colombia’s top mining export, prices are seen to increase from the current dismal levels of USD29/tonne to USD46/tonnes. The government sees the country’s mining future does not lie in coal but in metals.
