The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that OPEC countries would generate net oil export revenues of $323 billion in 2020. If realized, that would be their lowest oil export revenues since 2002. The decline is attributed to the coronavirus pandemic, which continued to depress oil prices until the fourth quarter of 2020. At the same time, OPEC export volumes are expected to fall as well under the coordinated supply cut pact with its allies.
In 2019, OPEC producers earned $595 billion in net oil export revenues last year, far below the estimated record high of $1.2 trillion in 2012. The continued decline in oil export revenues would put intense pressure on these countries’ fiscal budgets. This will, in turn, hurt their capabilities in supporting public services and funding social programs.
The international benchmark Brent crude oil spot price averaged $71/barrel in 2018 before falling to $64/barrel in 2019. For this year, EIA’s October outlook expects Brent prices to fall further to an average of $41/barrel. OPEC petroleum output stood at 36.6 million bpd in 2018 but decreased to 34.5 million bpd in the following year. According to EIA’s outlook, OPEC producers are expected to pump an average of 30.7 million bpd this year.
