The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that US coal production in 2020 would fall to 530 million short tons, 23.2% lower than 2019’s estimated output of 690 million short tons. EIA’s latest projection was revised up by 1.4% from the previous forecast in May. US coal output is forecast to rise again to 549 million short tons in 2021.
EIA expects that US coal exports would be down by 31.5% from 2019 to 63.6 million short tons this year. Exports are then forecast to increase to 70 million short tons next year. Meanwhile, domestic consumption was forecast to fall by 13.2% to 394 million short tons over the same period and then rise to 469 million short tons in 2021.
Coal use by the US power sector is expected to reach 351 million short tons this year, 35% lower than 2019 consumption. In 2021, coal consumption by the power sector is forecast to increase to 425 million short tons. EIA forecasts that US coal-powered estimated generation share will increase from 17% in 2020 to 20% in 2021.
