The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook expects the country’s coal production to fall by 28.8% from 705.3 million short tons in 2019 to 502.2 million short tons in 2020, while production in 2021 is expected to rise to 564.1 million st. The estimated production for this year would mark the lowest output since 477.2 million short tons in 1963. EIA has reduced its production estimate by 94.4 million since the start of the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The power sector is expected to consume 391.3 million short tons of coal in 2020 and 475 million short tons in 2021, falling from 539.4 million last year. Total consumption is estimated to fall from 587.3 million short tons in 2019 to 435.4 million short tons and 520.4 million short tons in this and next year, respectively. Rising natural gas prices are expected to drive coal production and demand in 2021, EIA said.
Coal is expected to generate about 18.1% of the US power in 2020 and 21.8% in 2021, dropping from 24.3% last year. Coal’s share in the US power mix has been decreasing significantly from 44.8% in 2010.
According to EIA’s estimates, US coal exports will drop to an 11-year low of 59.8 million short tons this year, down from 92.9 million short tons last year. However, coal exports are projected to increase to 63 million short tons in 2021. In 2019, 13.2% of total US coal production was for exports. This figure is expected to fall to 11.9% in 2020 and 11.2% in 2021.
