The Energy Information Administration said the US oil production will continue to decline until bottoming out at 10.63 million b/d March 2021, indicating 2.2 million b/d below the record high set in November last year. US oil output this year expected to average 11.56 million b/d. From last month's forecast, it is a downward revision of 130,000 b/d.
Down 60,000 b/d from last month, the 2021 output average 10.84 million b/d, according to the Short-Term Energy Outlook for June. Since 2016, 2020 will mark the first decline in US oil production. Global oil demand has a slight reduction from last month. It is on track to shrink 8.3 million b/d year on year to average 92.53 million b/d in 2020.
To reflect a combination of declining US crude production, announced OPEC+ oil supply cuts, and rising oil demand related to governments easing lockdown orders, EIA raised its outlook for crude prices from last month. Up $3.89 from last month, EIA sees Brent crude prices averaging $38.02/b in 2020 and $47.88/b in 2021, up 7 cents.
