The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), said that the United States would become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products again in the third quarter of 2020. The US is expected to keep such a status in most months through the end of the projecting period.
According to EIA, the forecast was based on lower net exports of petroleum products and higher net imports of crude oil. Net petroleum product exports are expected to fall to their lowest in Q3 when US refiners cut their runs significantly. Meanwhile, lower domestic production is expected to cause an increase in net crude oil imports.
Average Brent crude oil prices fell by $24/barrel from February to $32/barrel last month, the lowest monthly average in more than four years. Brent prices are expected to average $33/barrel this year. This is $10/barrel lower than in March STEO and down from last year’s average of $64/barrel. EIA projects prices will average $23/barrel Q2 2020 and then rise to $30/barrel in H2 and to $46/barrel in 2021. These estimated prices are $10/barrel lower than in March STEO.
In the forecast, EIA assumes that OPEC+ will not re-implement any production cuts during the projecting period. It also said that its April STEO is subject to intense levels of uncertainty due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy market.
