Reimposed lockdown measures in France, Spain, Poland, the UK, and some areas in the US are expected to slow down the pace of fuel demand recovery, offsetting the rebound in some Asian countries where consumption has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels. Mobility data showed traffic in London, Paris, and Madrid dropped significantly in November after peaking in October. Analysts said Europe’s oil demand would fall by around one million bpd this month. They noted that reimposed restrictions contributed to 80% of the drop, while the rest stemmed from seasonality factors.
The decline in Europe sparked concerns over another drop in the US. The US fuel market was optimistic on a demand recovery in late August. However, such positive sentiment has since faded. Gasoline demand, measured as product supplied, fell 9% from 9.2 million in August to 8.3 million bpd recently, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed.
In contrast, fuel demand in China has returned to pre-pandemic levels and was set to increase this year thanks to a rebound in the economy. Traffic in Beijing has recovered sharply from the baseline in February and was close to 2019 levels. Traffics were also not far from last year’s levels in Moscow and Tokyo. Mobility indicators in India remained resilient despite the country suffering a massive outbreak. Fuel demand in India has also exceeded pre-pandemic levels in October.
