Major oil producers and industry analysts have brought forward their predictions for peak oil demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Global crude consumption reached around 100 million bpd in 2019 but fell in 2020 as the health crisis prevented people from going out. Tele/home-working, the rise of electric vehicles, and the shift to renewables gained momentum during and after the pandemic, which could push oil demand to peak sooner.
OPEC said in its latest World Oil Outlook that demand would continue rising sharply by 1.7 million bpd to 101.6 million bpd in 2023 despite an ongoing energy transition. However, the group forecast global oil consumption to hit 106.6 million bpd in 2030, down 600,000 bpd from the group’s forecast last year and 11 million bpd lower than its view in 2007. It also trimmed its 2045 demand forecast to 108.2 million bpd, down 900,000 bpd from its projection in 2020.
According to the International Energy Agency, oil demand has already peaked in developed countries but is offset by the growth in emerging economies. The Paris-based agency said that oil demand growth would end within the next ten years, peaking at about 104 million bpd around 2030. However, IEA’s chief Fatih Birol said that oil demand would continue growing if there was no significant shift in government climate policies.
In its central scenario, British oil major BP expects the pandemic would knock out around 3 million bpd of oil consumption by 2025 and 2 million bpd by 2050. In a more aggressive scenario, BP said oil demand had already peaked in 2019. Norway’s Equinor brought forward its prediction for global oil demand peak by three years to around 2027-2028. Under its central scenario, the company sees oil demand to reach 99.5 million bpd in 2030 and drop to 84 million bpd in the next two decades.
Meanwhile, Shell’s CEO Ben van Beurden said it is too early to expect when demand would peak. However, he said that demand might have already peaked and if it recovered, it would take a long time. French oil major TotalEnergies previously expected a peak around 2030. However, it now says demand is expected to peak before 2030 and would plunge to 40 million-64 million bpd by 2050.
