India’s nationwide Covid-19 lockdown may continue in some form beyond the scheduled end date of 3 May. The first state to extend the lockdown in the country is Punjab.
Punjab, home to the 226,000 b/d Bhatinda refinery owned by state-controlled HPCL and the private-sector Mittal group, will keep lockdown measures in place for another two weeks until 17 May. There will be some relief for "green zones" that appear to be free of the coronavirus, but district officials in these areas are reluctant to allow businesses to open because of fears of a new outbreak.
India's Covid-19 outbreak is likely to peak in August-September with over half of the country's 1.35 billion population infected.
Much of the country's economic activity is concentrated in or dependent on areas hit by the coronavirus, so any relaxations in other areas may not have a major impact on economic activity or fuel demand.
Airlines are not accepting bookings until 31 May. Curfews and restrictions on movement of people in cities have already sent fuel demand lower by over 60 percent this month. India's 3.3 million b/d of state-controlled refining capacity and the 17.5 million t/yr Dahej LNG import terminal are operating at 50-55 percent capacity on average.
