According to International Energy Agency (IEA) website publication on Renewables 2022 Analysis and forecast to 2027 report:
Solar PV leads deployment thanks to competitive auctions, but better policy support could boost growth
Renewable capacity in the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) is expected to grow by 360 GW (+70%) over 2022-2027. Solar PV accounts for over two-thirds of deployment, followed by wind and hydropower. India leads expansion in the region with more than a 40% share in total growth, thanks to auctions for utilityscale PV and onshore wind capacity and better incentives for distributed PV.
In the ASEAN region, the introduction of competitive auctions in Indonesia and the Philippines (and plans for them in Viet Nam) accelerates renewable capacity growth. However, expansion remains limited by persistent challenges related to the lack of long-term policy support.
In Australia, new state-level auctions and high demand for corporate PPAs have led to significant upward revisions to this year’s forecast. In contrast, renewable energy deployment in Japan is expected to slow after 2023 as the transition from a FIT to a FIP leads to fewer capacity awards, while permitting challenges in Korea cause development to stagnate despite prolongation of its attractive fixed-price scheme.
Overall, despite downward forecast revisions for the ASEAN (due to delays in policy implementation) as well as for Japan and Korea, positive developments in India and Australia cause the forecast for Asia Pacific to be 6% higher this year than last.
In the accelerated case, renewable capacity growth in the region over 2022-2027 is more than 40% higher than in the main case. Such strong upside potential results mostly from the enlargement of currently limited policy support in the ASEAN, for example by speeding the implementation of planned competitive auctions in Viet Nam and Indonesia and introducing effective support policies in Thailand.
In addition, relaxing local-content and project ownership rules and improving the bankability of standard PPAs would encourage more international investment. Renewable power development in India could also be accelerated considerably if persistent challenges related to distribution companies’ poor financial health and land procurement were solved. In Australia, more auctions, timely investment in grids and rapid development of green hydrogen projects would result in almost 50% faster deployment of renewables. Throughout the region, simplifying permitting, especially in the ASEAN region, Korea and Japan, and boosting investment in grid development will be necessary to accelerate deployment.
