According to International Energy Agency (IEA) website publication on Renewables 2022 Analysis and forecast to 2027 report:
Policy support and high retail prices lead to faster distributed solar PV expansion in Belgium
Belgium is set to add almost 6 GW of renewable capacity over 2022-2027, driven by distributed solar PV and wind in the main case. Forecast growth is slightly lower than in the previous five years due to limited offshore wind expansion. Overall, four separate green certificate (GC) programmes spur growth: one from the federal government for offshore wind and hydropower and three regional ones (in Flanders, Wallonia and Brussels).
For distributed PV, rebates for residential systems in the Flanders region are being continued. Plus, the federal government has extended the VAT reduction for residential solar applications to buildings constructed since 2010, as it was previously available for older ones only. The combination of federal and regional incentives has improved the business case for distributed PV, especially in the context of higher retail prices.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in March 2022 Belgium’s federal government decided to extend the operation of 2 GW of nuclear capacity by ten years. It also introduced a EUR 1.2-billion financial package to accelerate the country’s energy transition and protect consumers from high energy prices. The package’s measures include developing new offshore wind zones to expand and accelerate offshore wind deployment, raising the country’s wind target from 4 GW to 5.7 GW by 2030.
This new target spurs additional offshore capacity deployment of 800 MW in our main-case forecast. The package also supports accelerated solar PV uptake at national railway stations and on federal buildings, as well as floating PV systems. It also prioritises the shortening of permitting and licensing wait times for onshore wind and solar PV.
In the accelerated case, renewable energy growth is demonstrated to be nearly 50% higher, with offshore wind and distributed PV showing the most upside potential. In May 2022, Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands signed the Esbjerg declaration, a EUR 135-billion offshore wind pact to deploy at least 65 GW by 2030 and 150 GW by 2050. Furthermore, Belgium’s national recovery and resilience plan includes EUR 100 million to develop an offshore hub and green hydrogen production.
The accelerated-case forecast thus assumes an early launch of the Energy Island hub with the North Sea Energy Cooperation and an additional 2 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2027. Plus, faster distributed PV expansion owing to higher retail electricity prices and increased auction capacity in Flanders and other regions leads to 35% higher solar PV deployment.
Subsidy-free projects and bilateral contracts spur renewable energy expansion in Denmark
With stronger ambitions towards 2030, Denmark’s renewable electricity capacity nearly doubles over 2022-2027 in the main case, led by solar PV. This year’s forecast has been revised upwards by 40% because considerable utility-scale solar PV additions are expected, mainly from unsubsidised projects financed through merchant revenues and bilateral contracts.
In the main case, almost 2 GW of offshore wind capacity is commissioned, including the Thor wind farm awarded last December. Onshore wind expansion includes the repowering of existing capacity, either through competitive auctions or corporate PPAs.
However, renewable capacity growth in the accelerated case is almost 30% higher than in the main case, with more subsidy-free PV projects based on PPAs or direct participation in the electricity market.
Towards the end of 2030, the state is expected to put an additional 9 GW of offshore wind out to tender. Furthermore, faster commissioning of projects in the pipeline and simplified permitting could provide an additional 1 GW of utility-scale solar PV capacity and 1 GW of wind.
