According to International Energy Agency (IEA) website publication on Renewables 2022 Analysis and forecast to 2027 report:
Permitting issues impair deployment, but ongoing policy efforts to shorten development lead times could help unlock faster expansion from auctions
In the main case, France’s cumulative renewable capacity is projected to grow by 50% (31 GW) over 2022-2027, with the greatest annual capacity additions in solar PV (+2.8 GW/year on average) and wind (+2.3 GW/year on average). Overall, France’s forecast has been revised downwards from last year mainly because permitting challenges are hampering faster expansion of utility-scale renewable energy projects, particularly onshore wind. Permitting delays and land constraints have caused government-led FIP auctions to be undersubscribed, and long development wait times are widening the gap between the time projects enter the pipeline (i.e. in the announced or permitting phase) and their actual deployment.
The current FIP auction framework offers potential for faster growth for both utilityscale solar PV and onshore wind. Today, project development timelines in France are double those of neighbouring EU countries, with about four to five years on average for ground PV, seven years for onshore wind and ten years for offshore wind. (8) These delays are raising development costs and leading to high project cancellation rates.
To mitigate the economic impacts of lengthy project development timelines, the regulator (CRE) introduced modified tender specifications in September 2022. Producers now have the option of selling their generation on the market before they receive government support, enabling additional revenues to offset higher technology costs. The CRE also extended the commissioning deadlines for auctioned projects to avoid penalties for developers, and it allows developers to increase project capacity by up to 140% of that secured in tenders.
More recently, the government announced a new bill to streamline and assure permit delivery and to shorten connection delays, enhancing citizen participation in projects and simplifying access to degraded land for renewable energy projects. However, the effectiveness of regulatory measures and the details of the announced bill to ease permitting are strong forecast uncertainties.
Annual onshore wind additions are expected to step up in 2022, primarily because of rising auction volumes over the past few years. Corporate PPA use is still marginal but expanding, which presents opportunities for both new small-scale plants and the increasing number of projects reaching the end of their 20-year policy support period. In 2022, France launched large-scale offshore wind generation with full commissioning of a 480-MW project at Saint-Nazaire, a full decade after the tendering competition had been held. Cumulative offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 3.6 GW at the end of the forecast period with the commissioning of six other projects from the same tendering scheme.
In 2021, France’s annual PV installations more than doubled from 2020 with the commissioning of previously auctioned capacity for utility-scale and commercial PV projects. Modified tendering specifications and an increased threshold for commercial solar PV project eligibility for the on-demand FIT lead to a more optimistic forecast this year, despite ongoing supply chain challenges and rising costs. In addition, high electricity prices and expectations of further increases stimulate demand from residential consumers, who may benefit from new selfconsumption support measures the government announced in September 2022. Overall, France’s installed PV capacity more than doubles over 2022-2027 in our main case.
Accelerated-case modelling suggests that France’s renewable capacity additions over 2022-2027 could be more than one-third higher than in our main case if several conditions are met. For instance, the accelerated case assumes the simplification of land eligibility criteria for projects, which currently encompass multiple regulations at different jurisdictional levels; faster handling of administrative and permitting procedures; re-evaluation of the costcompetitiveness criteria for auctions, 9 especially for the building and rooftop PV segment, in which small projects struggle to compete with large ones, leaving significant PV potential untapped; improvements to the adequacy of network connection capacity; and the securing of a reliable supply chain for equipment.
(8) In comparison, the lead time for ground solar PV projects in Germany is generally just over one year to three years.
