According to International Energy Agency (IEA) website publication on Renewables 2022 Analysis and forecast to 2027 report:
Subsidy programmes and net metering encourage solar PV and wind expansion, but grid and roof infrastructure challenges persist
The Netherlands is forecast to add nearly 30 GW of renewable power capacity from 2022 to 2027, led by solar PV and offshore wind. The SDE+ and SDE++ programmes, which provide subsidies for renewable energy generation or CO2 emissions reductions, prompt onshore wind and utility-scale and commercial solar PV uptake.
Meanwhile, offshore wind capacity expands thanks to tendering schemes, and net metering encourages residential PV growth. The 2022 forecast has been revised 20% upwards from last year because utility-scale and commercial PV projects were deployed more quickly than expected, and the government extended netmetering benefits.
Dutch utility- and commercial-scale PV capacity is forecast to increase over 17 GW in 2022-2027. However, annual additions decline because the Netherlands’ subsidy scheme now prescribes fewer auctions per year and the requested SDE++ budget subsidy for solar PV in 2022 is halved compared with last year. In the residential segment, full net-metering benefits were extended to 2024 and will continue to be a major driver of growth before their phasedown begins in 2025. In addition, the Dutch government recently decided to lift the VAT on residential solar panels starting in 2023, making systems more economically attractive.
Fewer auction bids and low awarded capacity due to grid constraints also affect annual onshore wind capacity additions over the forecast period, with just 2.8 GW of new onshore wind capacity anticipated. Offshore wind additions of over 3.5 GW are expected in previously awarded development zones, including an additional 1.4 GW that will be tendered this year. Although the government increased its 2030 capacity target from 11.5 GW to 21 GW to help reduce dependency on Russian gas, much of the additional capacity has yet to be tendered and is expected to become operational only after 2027.
Three major obstacles challenge expansion. The first is grid constraints, which are rendering some regions unable to accept new capacity until 2029. The second is future policy uncertainty. Under the EU Climate Agreement, the Netherlands has pledged to generate 35 TWh of electricity from onshore renewables by 2030. The Dutch government expects that enough onshore renewable capacity will be awarded to achieve this goal by the 2023 SDE++ auction round creating uncertainty about future subsidies for onshore renewables from 2024. The third impediment is rooftop infrastructure, as most large roofs have inadequate loadbearing capacity. From 2022, building owners must demonstrate a roof’s ability to host a solar installation to be eligible for a subsidy; the government is thus considering policy assistance to help owners retrofit roofs for solar panel suitability.
The accelerated case demonstrates nearly 20% greater additions, assuming the SDE++ scheme continues to award high volumes of onshore renewables beyond 2023. Plus, growth in the residential and commercial PV sectors can be higher if a policy to address roof structure issues is passed. Expanding the use of corporate PPAs, which have been employed in conjunction with SDE subsidies, could also achieve greater capacity increases. Finally, accelerating the pace of grid upgrades to address congestion issues would free up additional capacity for large-scale onshore wind and solar PV projects.
