According to International Energy Agency (IEA) website publication on Renewables 2022 Analysis and Forecast to 2027 report:
Renewable capacity almost triples by 2027, led by solar PV
Poland is expected to almost triple its installed capacity by adding 31 GW of renewables over 2022-2027, with distributed PV projects accounting for nearly half of all expansion, followed by utility-scale PV. In addition, its first offshore wind capacity will start operation in 2026, adding 2 GW by the end of the forecast period. Competitive auctions are expected to remain the main driver of utility-scale PV and onshore wind deployment.
After a step increase in distributed PV capacity growth in 2021 and the first half of 2022, the annual installation pace will slow with the transition from net metering to net billing, which is less generous. Still, the distributed solar PV forecast for this year is more optimistic than last year’s thanks to higher-than-expected deployment over 2021-2022 and elevated electricity prices increasing profitability. Faster rooftop PV adoption is the main reason for Poland’s 27% upward forecast revision.
Investment subsidies, tax rebates and a generous net-metering scheme allowed Poland’s distributed PV capacity to quintuple between 2019 and 2021, exceeding government expectations. As a result, the country already surpassed its 2030 PV target last year. Subsidies were scaled down in 2022 and net billing replaced net metering in April 2022, as integrating rapidly rising volumes of new capacity into the energy system has been challenging for distribution grid infrastructure. Policy changes led to an almost 60% decrease in installations between Q1 and Q3 2022, but high electricity prices are making rooftop PV investments considerably more attractive, leading to higher-than-expected installations in the second half of 2022.
Auctions are the principal driver of utility-scale capacity expansion, with 6 GW of PV and 5 GW of onshore wind expected to come online as a result of contracts awarded during 2016-2021. The next auctions will be held in December 2022 and the government has published a regulation determining the annual tendering schedule up to 2027. Planned auctions are expected to result in the installation of 9 GW of utility-scale PV and 3 GW of onshore wind. The forecast includes commissioning of some of these projects by 2027.
For offshore wind, Poland awarded 6 GW of capacity in 2021 via contracts for difference, while the next auctions are planned for 2025. Poland has also requested around EUR 3.7 billion in grants and loans through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility to support development of port infrastructure. The payments have been delayed, however, putting the timely commissioning of awarded projects at risk. Plus, restrictive-distance rules for turbines continue to slow the pace of onshore wind capacity additions, leading to a downward forecast revision for this technology.
In the accelerated-case forecast, Poland achieves 36% higher renewable capacity additions over 2022-2027 than in the main case, with onshore wind having the largest upside potential. While faster onshore wind expansion could be achieved through the prompt easing of turbine placement restrictions, offering higher volumes in planned auctions would lead to faster growth of both onshore wind and utility-scale PV. Extending tax rebates and subsidies for residential PV owners and small companies would accelerate deployment significantly, but greater investment in transmission and distribution grids will be necessary to enable faster wind and solar PV capacity growth. In addition, updating national strategic documents for long-term power sector development would provide greater visibility for renewable energy developers, encouraging investment.
