According to International Energy Agency (IEA) website publication on Renewables 2022 Analysis and Forecast to 2027 report, the share of renewable energy consumed in transport in our main case does not meet the level the European Commission estimates is necessary to achieve the REPowerEU target. While the REPowerEU plan requires a 32% 27 share of renewable energy in transport by 2030, our main case models 16% by 2027, putting the European Union on track for 20% by 2030.
Biofuels make up the largest portion of the renewable energy share in transport, but growing EV sales and renewable capacity expansion mean renewable electricity expands more quickly. To accelerate growth, the European Union would need to adopt more stringent targets, with most member states aligning their domestic policies accordingly. Policies would need to focus on raising biofuel use, boosting EV sales and expanding infrastructure and renewable electricity shares, as well as reducing energy demand through conservation and efficiency measures. Including these actions in the accelerated case puts the European Union on track for a 29% renewable share by 2030, but this still falls short of the REPowerEU requirement.
In our main case, the renewable share in transport energy consumption expands from 9% in 2020 to 16% in 2027, with biofuel use increasing 1 billion litres during 2022-2027. Member-state policies that require minimum shares of biofuels or renewable fuels (and GHG reductions, in Germany’s case) drive this growth. In most countries, policies are designed to become more stringent over time to meet EU-wide directives, including the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED II).
The RED II targets 14% renewable energy in transport by 2030, including multipliers, and the share of electric vans and cars on the road rises from 2.3% to 15% across Europe (although every country’s uptake will be different). Electric vehicles are increasingly powered by renewable electricity, as its share in total generation climbs from 37% to almost 55% during 2022-2027. Main-case modelling is based on existing member state EV policies and EU-level CO2 emissions standards for new cars and trucks.
Growth is limited in the main case because state- and EU-level policies to meet higher targets are not in place in most cases. To increase the renewable energy share, member states would need to make transport policies more ambitious, expand biofuel production (particularly of advanced biofuels), accelerate electric vehicle deployment and raise renewable electricity shares more quickly. Vehicle efficiency and conservation measures would also reduce gasoline and diesel demand, which could help achieve higher renewable shares in the transport sector.
In the accelerated case, renewable energy in transport climbs to 20% by 2027, putting the European Union on track for a 29% share by 2030. This boost results from policy changes to meet the EU Fit for 55 objective of a 13% decline in GHG emissions intensity in the transport sector by 2030, which the European Commission estimates would lead to a 28% share of renewable energy in the transport sector. In alignment with this goal, biofuel use expands by an additional 6 billion litres, the electric car and van share of vehicles on the road climbs to 18% and renewable electricity production rises to 59% by 2027. To achieve this growth, member states would need more ambitious transportation programmes. Only Germany, Sweden and Finland have policies in place that exceed the Fit for 55 targets.
Even in the accelerated case, however, the EU transport sector renewable energy share falls short of the REPowerEU estimate. To close this gap, the European Union is considering a 3-percentage-point increase in its requirement for renewable fuels from non-biological sources (such as synthetic fuels made from CO2 and hydrogen), but it has only one commercial-scale facility under construction so far.
