Japanese petrochemical plants will likely maintain normal operating rates although the government declared a state of emergency in a bid to curb the spread of the coronavirus, market sources told SSESSMENTS.COM. The state of emergency applies in some areas in Japan, namely Tokyo, Chiba, Fukuoka, Hyogo, Kanagawa, Osaka, and Saitama.
Transportation will continue as usual, limiting disruptions of petrochemical product delivery. However, a decline in gasoline demand is expected to slow down refinery operations, which can impact refinery-grade propylene output.
Market sources informed SSESSMENTS.COM that JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy is scheduled to restart a 404,000 tons/year naphtha cracker in Kawasaki at the end of this month after annual maintenance since end-February. Meanwhile, Maruzen plans to shut a 550,000 tons/year steam cracker in Chiba for an annual turnaround in May-June.
Japanese PVC producers have been reducing output due to low overseas demand. Poor demand from India is expected to keep PVC plant operations in Japan under 100%. The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted the world's auto industry, which in turn, caused a slowdown in Japan's rubber plant operations.
Market participants told SSESSMENTS.COM that they expected a decline in Japan's propylene exports due to reduced output from refineries. In February, Japan's propylene exports plunged to 44,624 tons, 39% lower than in January.
PVC exports are also expected to decline in the coming months due to lower demand from India and a slowdown in plant operations. Japan's PVC exports rose 8.3% month-on-month to 57,244 tons in February.
On the other hand, exports of butadiene are expected to increase in the coming months as downstream operations decrease. Customs data showed that butadiene exports tumbled to 1 ton in February from 7,747 tons in January.
