Libya’s National Oil Co. (NOC) foresaw oil production to rise to 260,000 bpd next week as the country revives its oil industry after blockades since January.
Previously last week, Eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar stated that his forces would lift their eight-month blockade of oil exports. However, the extent and sustainability of the revival are uncertain, as too the ways of the revenues being used.
On Tuesday, the company had already continued exports at the Zueitina oil terminal, in addition to Marsa El Hariga and Brega terminals, among the few secure ones to open. NOC is still evaluating other ports and fields.
Starting Wednesday, oil tankers are estimated to start arriving to load crude in storage. Trader Unipex has a tanker on the way to the Hariga port to load cargo, according to shipping data and traders.
Before the blockade, Libya’s oil output was about 1.2 million bpd or 1% of global production. The blockade slashed the production to merely around 100,000 bpd.
Looking forward, Goldman Sachs forecast that by December, Libya’s output would reach an increase of 400,000 bpd on the back of both logistical and political risks to a fast and sustainable increase in output.
The bank estimated that Libya’s oil output return to the global market would not derail the recovery. Any upside risk to production would likely be counterbalanced by higher compliance with production cuts from other OPEC members.
At the moment, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) are closely monitoring the situation in Libya.
