- The combined market share of oil and gas in the global primary energy mix is expected to remain above 50% to 2045
According to TASS, Russia's state-owned news agency article published on October 31, 2022, oil will remain the most in-demand fuel until 2045, although its share in world consumption will begin to decline, according to the OPEC World Oil Outlook.
"Demand for oil as a primary fuel is anticipated to increase from 88 mboe/d in 2021 to 101 mboe/d in 2045, with its share in the energy mix dropping from 31% to just below 29%. Despite decelerating oil demand growth, oil is set to retain the highest share in the global energy mix during the entire forecast period. The combined market share of oil and gas in the global primary energy mix is expected to remain above 50% to 2045," the report said.
At the same time, global oil demand can grow by 13 mln barrels per day (bpd) by 2045 compared with the demand in 2021 to 110 mln bpd, OPEC noted. However, the overall growth will occur until 2025, and its plateau is predicted from 2035.
According to the outlook, until 2025, the annual growth in oil demand will be about 2.1 mln bpd, between 2025 and 2030 it will slow down to 0.6 mln bpd, and in 2030-2035 - to 0.2 mln bpd. "Overall growth slows over the projection period, with virtually no increase after 2035, hinting to a relatively long period of plateauing oil demand at the global level," the report says.
As for OECD countries, demand for oil will start to decline after 2024, while non-OECD countries will provide demand growth "driven by an expanding middle class, high population growth and stronger economic growth potential." Non-OECD countries will also provide global energy demand growth, which could be 23% by 2045 compared to 2021.
The report notes that these countries will increase their energy demand by 69 mln bpd by 2045, with India alone accounting for 28% of this growth.
According to OPEC experts, by 2045 renewable energy sources (wind and solar) will become the fastest growing types of energy resources in terms of demand. The demand for them will grow by 31 mln bpd. Gas demand may increase by 19 mln bpd, and for oil - by 12 mln bpd.
