LNG-fired power generation in Pakistan is set to slow by 2030, according to estimates by state-owned National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) in its Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2047 (IGCEP). NTDC attributed the slowdown to the growing use of renewable and carbon-neutral sources for power generation.
LNG-fired power plants generated 28.1 Terawatt hour (TWh) of electricity in 2019, rising from 27.8 TWh in the previous year, data from Pakistan’s regulatory authority Nepra showed. However, it is estimated to decline to 20.7-21.8 TWh/year in 2030, with the baseline prediction of 21.1 TWh/year. This represents a 833,000 tons/year decline in LNG demand from the power sector.
This decline comes despite Pakistan’s significant power demand growth projection. The IMF estimated that the country’s power demand would expand from 124 TWh/year in 2019 to 215 TWh/year in 2030. On the other hand, coal-fired power output is expected to increase to 38.5 TWh/year from 21.1 TWh/year over the same period. Coal-fired generation can surge to as high as 62.1 TWh/year if the government issues no renewables policies, the plan said. Meanwhile, power generation from nuclear, bagasse, and renewable plants is estimated to increase from 49.3 TWh/year to 175.7 TWh/year.
