AlwaysFree: Russia’s Current Account Surplus Rebounds a Bit in April

According to Bloomberg article published on May 12, 2023, Russia’s current account surplus ticked up in April from the previous month as oil prices recovered a bit, but the inflow so far this year still remains far short of the flood that helped support the economy in 2022.

The surplus in the current account — roughly the difference between exports and imports — more than doubled in April to $6.8 billion from March, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the Bank of Russia. The average price for Russia’s Urals crude oil - a key export - rose by 23% last month from March, according to the Finance Ministry. 

The central bank didn’t publish a figure for March, but it could be calculated by subtracting the January-February total from the revised first-quarter figure the bank did publish.

The April result was far from enough to offset the sharp drop in the surplus over the first fourth months of the year as prices and volumes of Russian exports dropped and imports rose slightly. The inflow dropped to $22.6 billion so far this year, down from $96.5 billion a year earlier. 

What Bloomberg Economics says...

April’s reading suggests Russia’s current account surplus will decline from $233 billion in 2022 to $45 billion in 2023. Despite booking a surplus, the ruble will remain under pressure from capital outflows as households and corporates move more of their savings to banks in Kazakhstan and other neighboring countries.- Alexander Isakov, Russia economist 

Sanctions imposed by the US and its allies over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as the price cap on the country’s crude exports, have squeezed the inflow of cash that helped sustain the economy last year. 

Last month, the central bank cut its forecast for the current account surplus this year to $47 billion. The ruble has lost most than 10% against the dollar so far this year.

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