On Monday, South Korea's presidential committee on carbon neutrality submitted two detailed scenarios to achieve 2050 net-zero emissions, each with a complete coal phase-out, to the government.
The first scenario assumes a complete suspension of all thermal generation, eliminating power sector emissions by 2050. South Korea would raise renewable output to 889.9TWh or 70.8% share of the country’s overall power demand in 2050. Generation through zero-carbon gas turbines and fuel cell technologies would make up 21.5% and 1.4% each, with a combined output of 287.1TWh. Nuclear generation would total 76.9TWh, making up 6.1% of the power mix.
The second scenario involves keeping liquefied natural gas (LNG)’s role as a flexible power source but it would account for only 5% of power demand or 61TWh, in 2050. Renewables' share in the power mix is lower than in the first scenario at 60.9% at a total of 736TWh. The share of fuel cell and zero-carbon gas turbine output would be 10.1% and 13.8%, respectively, at a combined total of 287.9TWh. Nuclear generation would total 86.9TWh, accounting for 7.2% of the country’s total power requirements.
Under the second scenario, power sector emissions are set to be cut by 20.7 million tons of CO2e by 2050.
Overall power demand under both scenarios is estimated to more than double by 2050 from 2020’s level of 552 TWh. They also predicted that the share of nuclear in the mix is also expected to fall sharply from 160TWh in 2020.
On October 27, the government is scheduled to review and approve one of the scenarios at the next cabinet meeting. Then, next month at the UN Cop 26 climate summit, the government also expects to officially declare its 2030 nationally determined contributions (NDC) target.
Previously, the nationally determined contributions (NDC) were revised upward to set net emissions from fossil-fuel generation including coal and gas to be cut by 119.7million tonnes of CO2e to 149.9million tonnes CO2e by 2030, from 269.6million tonnes CO2e in 2018.
