Total released its Energy Outlook on September 29 which predicted that global oil consumption would plateau by 2030 or sooner, depending on the speed of the transition toward renewable energy. Under the outlook’s “momentum” scenario, oil demand is expected to peak by 2030 and then decrease. The “momentum” scenario assumes accelerated innovation in oil replacements, improved energy efficiency, and regulations that reduce oil demand in transportation. However, these steps are not enough to meet the target to cap the global temperature increase by 2 degrees Celsius.
Under the “rupture” scenario, oil demand is projected to peak before 2030, with coal disappearing by 2050. This scenario assumes sustainable liquid fuels accounts for 20% of liquids consumption by 2050. It still sees oil demand of around 45 million bpd in emerging markets’ transportation by 2050. Under the “rupture” scenario, the world manages to limit the global temperature increase at 1.5-1.7 degrees Celsius.
Previously, fellow European oil majors BP and Shell revealed their own models projecting that oil demand peaks as soon as this decade. In its Energy Outlook, BP uses three scenarios, of which two predict that global oil demand has already peaked. Meanwhile, Shell projected oil demand would plateau before 2030 in two of its three models.
