According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website article published on February, 2023:
U.S. refinery utilization: EIA forecasts domestic refinery maintenance will contribute to reduced refinery utilization in the United States through April. Refinery utilization dropped because of severe cold weather that swept through the midcontinent in late December, contributing to partial unit shutdowns, reductions in run rates, and a few instances of unit damage. December refinery inputs fell below 16 million barrels per day (b/d), marking the largest month-over-month decline in two years when significant cold weather disrupted refinery operations in February 2021.
In 2022, many refiners postponed planned maintenance during the spring and fall as low product inventories and high refining margins encouraged refiners to maximize utilization. Although refining margins remain above normal levels, EIA expects more refiners will undergo deferred maintenance this season. EIA forecast U.S. distillation inputs will be less than 16 million b/d until April. Utilization remains below 90% until May, which EIA forecast will keep refining margins for gasoline and diesel above yearago levels during February and March. However, EIA expect refinery inputs and utilization to increase after maintenance is completed, and 2023 inputs will likely be similar to 2022 inputs, leading to falling refining margins beginning in the second quarter of 2023. ExxonMobil’s planned startup of a 250,000 b/d capacity expansion at its Beaumont refinery in the first half of this year will contribute to the increase. EIA expect slightly less 2024 refinery inputs compared with 2023, partly due to the expected closure of LyondellBasell’s Houston refinery at the end of 2023.
Rocky Mountain retail prices: On December 24, Suncor began repairing its 103,000 b/d Commerce City refinery in Colorado following unit damage related to cold weather. EIA expect this Colorado refinery will be unavailable until late in the first quarter. This outage will contribute to reduced refinery utilization and gasoline production in the Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4) through March, which EIA expects will lead to higher retail fuel prices.
EIA forecasts retail gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountains will reach $3.58 per gallon (gal) in February, up from $3.18/gal in December. This increase is more than the forecast increase for the U.S. average retail gasoline price, which rises from $3.21/gal in December to $3.49/gal in February. Rocky Mountain retail fuel prices are normally lower than the U.S. average during the winter months; however, EIA estimates that they will be at a premium in February and March, compared with averaging a nearly 10 cent/gal discount over the past five years. Although Colorado is more connected to the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions than other parts of the Rocky Mountains, the potential for prolonged refinery outage at the Commerce City refinery could contribute to wider changes in regional retail prices.
Jet fuel prices: The jet fuel crack spread increased significantly in January, leading us to revise the February STEO forecast compared with the January STEO. The increased jet fuel price is a response to low inventories, less refinery production related to recent weather, and increasing international demand. Jet fuel prices increased sharply at several times in 2022, moving in sync with similar increases in the price of distillate fuel. However, distillate fuel prices in January did not increase as much as jet fuel prices, probably because very mild weather limited demand for heating oil (a type of distillate fuel). As China lessens COVID restrictions, leading to increasing jet fuel demand, EIA expect jet fuel refining margins will be higher than EIA previously forecast in the coming months.
