According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website article published on December 6, 2022, the EIA forecast U.S. natural gas exports to increase in 2023, driven largely by growth in LNG exports. U.S. LNG exports peaked in the first half of 2022 (1H22) as facilities operated close to maximum capacity, and a new facility, Calcasieu Pass, came online and steadily increased output in 2022. However, a fire at Freeport LNG in June resulted in the shutdown of the facility, removing about 2.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. LNG export capacity in 2H22. The Freeport facility recently announced plans to come back online in December and to increase output to about 2.0 Bcf/d in January 2023. When Freeport LNG resumes, the department forecast U.S. LNG exports will establish a new record close to 12.5 Bcf/d in March 2023. The department expects LNG exports will then reach 12.7 Bcf/d by the end of 2023.
No new U.S. LNG export facilities are scheduled to come online in 2023. The department forecast U.S. LNG exports will average 12.3 Bcf/d throughout 2023 as facilities continue to operate close to maximum capacity to meet high demand for natural gas in Europe and Asia.
Natural gas pipeline exports reached almost 9.0 Bcf/d in November, near its previous record. The department forecast natural gas pipeline exports will reach record highs between 9.0 Bcf/d and 10.0 Bcf/d through the upcoming winter months. Natural gas pipeline exports from the United States flow to either Canada or Mexico.
Natural gas production: The department forecast that U.S. production of dry natural gas will average about 100.0 Bcf/d from December through March, down about 0.5 Bcf/d from November due to weather-related declines, usually caused by freeze-offs and the possibility of extreme winter weather events. Mild weather in key producing regions could prevent those declines.
Dry natural gas production has increased during 2022 in the United States, averaging more than 100 Bcf/d in October and November and exceeding pre-pandemic monthly production records from 2019. Growth in natural gas production was driven by increased drilling activity in the Haynesville region in Louisiana and East Texas and in the Permian region in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Recent pipeline infrastructure expansions in both these regions facilitated the increases in production.
The department forecast production to grow slightly in 2023, averaging between 100 Bcf/d and 101 Bcf/d for the year, about 2% more than in 2022. Production in our forecast for 1H23 is limited by pipeline constraints and declining natural gas prices. In 2H23, more pipeline infrastructure expansion projects are set to come online and contribute to increases in dry natural gas production. The pace at which these projects are completed is a notable uncertainty in the forecast, and delays could result in lower production than the department expects.
