Down by 7.9 million b/d versus 2019, global oil demand will average 92.1 million b/d in 2020, the US International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast. Due to the re-imposition of social distancing measures due to COVID-19 spread in key regions, the agency highlighted uncertainty about the forward path for global oil demand.
The first half of the year, when demand fell by 10.75 million b/d, was the worst of the demand destruction, new data confirms. The decline in Q2 2020 was less severe than expected, new data also shows. As lockdowns were imposed to combat the coronavirus pandemic, global oil demand in the quarter fell by 16.4 million b/d year-on-year. Demand rebounded strongly in China and India in May, rising by 700,000 b/d and 1.1 million b/d month-on-month, respectively.
An improvement in the level of decline to 5.1 million b/d expected by the IEA for the second half of the year. IEA has made some minor adjustments to its outlook. Demand for 2021 will be 97.4 million b/d with jet-kerosene accounting for three-quarters of the deficit. Average demand in 2021 will be 2.6 million b/d below the 2019 level.
